The real unemployment rate? Try 14.9%

I have one thing to say about all this below; welcome to my world.

1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.

2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.

3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.5%.

4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.9%.

5. Recall that back in 2009, White House economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer used their old-fashioned Keynesian model to predict how the $800 billion stimulus would affect employment. According to their model—as displayed in the above chart, updated—unemployment should be around 6% today.

6. As Ed Carson of Investor’s Business Daily points out, it’s been a whopping 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.

7. And how long might it take to get back to the 4.4% unemployment rate that existed under President George. W. Bush? Well, let’s say the goal was to get back to that rate in 5 years. And let’s assume the LFP rate returns to the CBO trend. According to a jobs calculator created by the Atlanta Fed, the U.S. economy would have to generate about 225,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 60 months to hit that target. But few economist think we’ll see sustained job growth like that, especially since it assumes the economy would avoid recession during that span.

Indeed, JPMorgan just cut its GDP forecast for this quarter to 1.5% from 2.0% and says there is “some downside risk” to its second-quarter forecast of 2.5%.

via The real unemployment rate? It sure isn’t 8.3% « The Enterprise Blog.

What gets me is that I keep getting these people coming here and telling me to get a job.  My answer to them: Find me one.  Truth is there are not any jobs around here.  Especially if you have been out of work for a long while, as I have; so, basically, I am screwed.  I will most likely be forced onto the Government dole, because of the Democrats screwing of our system into the ground.  I have paid into it; so, I guess I am entitled to it.  What sucks is, I really want to work; at least doing some sort of delivery product; at least in a straight truck; but because I have been out of work so long, most employers will not hire someone out as long as I have been.

It does truly suck; but it is my reality of my life.  You would think that I would be able to find work for a political publication; but anymore, if you do not have some sort of an inside connection somewhere, you will not be hired.  Again, more of that suck business; but it is the reality of life.  One can either suck it up or whine about it.  I choose not to whine, but rather keep writing.  I figure whining about it will not change anything anyhow, so why bother?

Anyhow, that is the facts life.  One can either deal with it and move on or complain.