Any other time, I would dismiss this as saber-rattling, but this first development here, has me very worried.
The first story via Reuters:
(Reuters) – Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said on Sunday, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state’s lifeblood, oil.
“Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped … we will sell our oil to new customers,” spokesman Alireza Nikzad was quoted as saying by the ministry of petroleum website.
The European Union in January decided to stop importing crude from Iran from July 1 over its disputed nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building bombs. Iran denies this.
Iran’s oil minister said on February 4 that the Islamic state would cut its oil exports to “some” European countries.
The European Commission said last week that the bloc would not be short of oil if Iran stopped crude exports, as they have enough in stock to meet their needs for around 120 days.
Industry sources told Reuters on February 16 that Iran’s top oil buyers in Europe were making substantial cuts in supply months in advance of European Union sanctions, reducing flows to the continent in March by more than a third – or over 300,000 barrels daily.
What this will cause is a spike in prices in the oil market; which of course, will cause gas prices to go up in the U.K. and in France. The bad thing is, the U.K.’s and France’s gas prices are alright incredibly high, because of the high taxes that are being tagged on to the sales of gas. This, of course, is making United States and I would imagine international officials very nervous. So, talk of war is imminent.
Which brings us to our next story, which comes via the U.K. Guardian:
Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear programme, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.
The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures, such as the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo, to bite deeper into Iran’s already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran.
But there is a strong current of opinion within the administration – including in the Pentagon and the state department – that believes sanctions are doomed to fail, and that their principal use now is in delaying Israeli military action, as well as reassuring Europe that an attack will only come after other means have been tested.
“The White House wants to see sanctions work. This is not the Bush White House. It does not need another conflict,” said an official knowledgeable on Middle East policy. “Its problem is that the guys in Tehran are behaving like sanctions don’t matter, like their economy isn’t collapsing, like Israel isn’t going to do anything.
“Sanctions are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it’s hard to see how we don’t move to the ‘in extremis’ option.”
The White House has said repeatedly that all options are on the table, including the use of force to stop Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, but that for now the emphasis is firmly on diplomacy and sanctions.
But long-held doubts among US officials about whether the Iranians can be enticed or cajoled into serious negotiations have been reinforced by recent events.
“We don’t see a way forward,” said one official. “The record shows that there is nothing to work with.”
Scepticism about Iranian intent is rooted in Iran’s repeated spurning of overtures from successive US presidents from Bill Clinton to Barack Obama, who appealed within weeks of coming to office for “constructive ties” and “mutual respect” .
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s claim this week that Iran loaded its first domestically-made fuel rod into a nuclear reactor, and Iran’s threat to cut oil supplies to six European countries, were read as further evidence that Tehran remains defiantly committed to its nuclear programme. That view was strengthened by the latest Iranian offer to negotiate with the UN security council in a letter that appeared to contain no significant new concessions.
If Obama were to conclude that there is no choice but to attack Iran, he is unlikely to order it before the presidential election in November unless there is an urgent reason to do so. The question is whether the Israelis will hold back that long.
I hated to quote so much of that; but I wanted see what it is that I am talking about. Everyone that reads this blog for any length of time; knows that I am not a huge fan of so-called “Military Action.” I believe if we are going to have war with Iran, we need to formally declare war against Iran in Congress and then go fight the Iranians. Not just have some sort of “Military Action.” Because as we all know from history, those “Military Actions” can turn into a meat grinder real quick; case in point, Iraq.
Also, if anyone who happens to read this, and is a Ron Paul supporter and thinks this is a big scam. (Update: Perfect example here!) Check this report out via the Associated Press:
VIENNA (AP) — Iran is poised to greatly expand uranium enrichment at a fortified underground bunker to a point that would boost how quickly it could make nuclear warheads, diplomats tell The Associated Press.
They said Tehran has put finishing touches for the installation of thousands of new-generation centrifuges at the cavernous facility – machines that can produce enriched uranium much more quickly and efficiently than its present machines.
While saying that the electrical circuitry, piping and supporting equipment for the new centrifuges was now in place, the diplomats emphasized that Tehran had not started installing the new machines at its Fordo facility and could not say whether it was planning to.
Still, the senior diplomats – who asked for anonymity because their information was privileged – suggested that Tehran would have little reason to prepare the ground for the better centrifuges unless it planned to operate them. They spoke in recent interviews – the last one Saturday.
The reported work at Fordo appeared to reflect Iran’s determination to forge ahead with nuclear activity that could be used to make atomic arms despite rapidly escalating international sanctions and the latent threat of an Israeli military strike on its nuclear facilities.
Fordo could be used to make fissile warhead material even without such an upgrade, the diplomats said.
They said that although older than Iran’s new generation machines, the centrifuges now operating there can be reconfigured within days to make such material because they already are enriching to 20 percent – a level that can be boosted quickly to weapons-grade quality.
It is quite obvious the Iranians are not just bluffing when it comes to making nuclear warheads. The problem is that this puts the United States in a very difficult position. The United States and NATO got involved with Libya and that did not end very good at all. The United States has basically stayed out of the Syrian conflict. If the Obama Administration does decide to act against Iran, its critics would savage the President for acting against an oil rich Nation like Iran, as opposed to coming to the aid of people being oppressed in a Nation like Syria.
The Obama Administration seems to be hedging its bets on sanctions on Iran and if there an attack that it would come from Israel. The problem with that is this; the President of Iran, quite bluntly, is crazy —- as in psycho kind of crazy. If Iran is attacked by Israel, they will most assuredly fire missiles at the United States, the UK and everyone else. So, there you have it. This is where we stand. The libertarian in me is praying someone in Iran blinks and backs off. However, the realist in me is not that optimistic. Something tells me that we are headed for another conflict, which saddens me greatly.
Because the question that Americans will have to ask ourselves and the Obama Administration will have to ask itself or if one of the Republicans just happen to win — they will have to ask themselves this question here: Would it be honestly worth putting our youngest treasures out there again to be turn into a meat grinder, just to put down another out of control Arab Country? This is the question that responsible people in all levels of Government have to ask themselves. We just do not need another Iraq again. We, as a nation cannot afford it monetarily, and our Military is still recovering from the last General’s war that was fought.
Something, somewhere has to give and for the sake of this Country — I hope it is them, and not us.
