Why Scott Walker Won and the Democrats in Wisconsin lost

I was going to try avoid writing about this, but I am seeing some rather silly stuff being written about this win; So, I thought I would offer my thoughts as a former Democratic Party voter. Update: Greg Sargent over at The Washington Post hits the post a bit, but fails, as most progressives do; to see the full picture.

Putting it plain and simple, The Democrats in Wisconsin picked a fight that they could not win. — They were outspent, out-organized, and out-boxed; the Democrats had zero chance of winning this recall election at all. But yet, they still decided to fight for a recall election. They should have taken their cues from Michigan and left well enough alone. The Democrats in Michigan tried unsuccessfully to get Governor Snyder recalled here twice and both times they failed horribly. This is because residents of Michigan knew that the former Governor of Michigan was a incompetent moron who could not Govern worth a damn and they did not want a Democrat back in office again. Thus, the Democrats wisely dropped the issue and decided to try and win the 2012 election. Wisconsin should have followed their lead, but they did not and decided to try and force their hand and failed.

Mother Jones has some good ideas as well:

1) Campaign Money is King

Walker crushed his Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, in the political money wars. The governor raised $30.5 million while Barrett pulled in $3.9 million—a nearly 8-to-1 advantage in candidate fundraising. Walker banked on in- and out-of-state donors, including heavyweight GOP contributors such as Houston homebuilder Bob Perry and Amway heir Dick Devos. Walker was able to raise so much money because of a quirk in state law that lets candidates potentially facing a recall raise unlimited funds for their defense. (The normal limit for individual donors in $10,000.) Barrett did not get to raise unlimited funds in his recall campaign—which placed him at a great disadvantage.

All that money helped Walker pound Barrett in the ad wars. An analysis by Hotline On Call found that Walker and his GOP allies outspent Barrett and his backers 3-to-1 on TV ad buys in the three months before Tuesday’s recall. The dark-money-peddling Republican Governors Association itself spent $9.4 million to keep Walker in office.

Just as the political money advantage proved crucial to labor’s win last year in repealing Ohio’s anti-union SB 5 law, campaign cash appears to have played a pivotal role in the GOP’s Wisconsin wins .

2) The Candidate

Filing nearly one million signatures to trigger a recall election, Democrats and union leaders and members had their sights trained on the governor. The recall election’s Democratic primary forced them to take their eyes off the prize. A primary fight between Barrett and former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk splintered the labor movement. The major unions endorsed Falk early on, sometimes over the opposition of their own rank-and-file. Several other unions held out until late March, when Barrett entered the race, and then endorsed the mayor. This primary drama knocked the anti-Walker effort off course for weeks, if not a month, in a race where every single day counts. It divided a unified movement into Barrett supporters and Falk supporters.

3) No New Ground

Democrats and labor unions touted their massive get-out-the-vote operation, which was supposed to tip the scales in their favor. Turn-out was way up in the elections, at 2.4 million, but the left failed to win over the types of people who elected Walker in 2010. As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinelnotes, Walker’s Tuesday win is a mirror image of his 2010 victory—just with more voters. He won men and lost women; won independents and lost moderates; and won suburban and rural voters but not urban voters.

More notably, Walker won 38 percent of votes from union households—an increase of 1 percent from 2010. Remember, union members or their spouses didn’t know in 2012 that Walker planned to target them after the election with his anti-union “budget repair” bill curbing collective bargaining rights. Yet 16 months after Walker launched his attack on unions, just as many people in union households voted for him. The unions failed to rally their own ranks.

My thoughts on the Unions — One of the main reasons why the unions failed; not because of a lack of members or money. The unions failed because for the following:

They over played their hand, by storming the capital building and occupying it. This made them look like total buffoons in the eyes of the people, not mention the heavy handed tactics that were on par with communist gulags.
The second reason is a rather simple one; not all union members are on board with the progressive movement, just because someone has a union card, does not necessarily make him a Democrat. Some union members are free thinkers and some of them resent being culled in together with the socialist crowd.
The last reason is this; some union members are just not happy with the Democratic Party and with Obama. I believe Obama fatigue played a big part in the loss in Wisconsin. I believe it will also play out in November as well.

Needless to say, Scott Walker won big and the Unions and Democrats lost big. The results of this will be far-reaching and the Democrats in Wisconsin would be wise to lay low and try to hang on in 2012. But if they do not, they should learn the lessons of the massive over-reach that took place in Wisconsin and with the Democratic Party as a whole. However, knowing Democrats like I do; they will not learn a thing from this.

IBD: Job Recession 49 months, Worst Since World War 2

Continuing with my line of thought that I started yesterday; it seems that things are just plain bad.

Just how bad is it?

This bad:

The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February vs. expectations for 206,000, continuing a recent trend of decent hiring activity. The unemployment rate held at 8.3%.

But America remains mired in the longest jobs recession since the Great Depression. It’s been 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. And with nonfarm payrolls still 5.33 million below their old high, the jobs slump will continue for several more years.

The previous jobs recession record — 47 months — came during and after the comparatively mild 2001 recession, which saw unemployment climb to only 6.3%. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.

The labor market won’t truly return to health until some 10 million positions are created to rehire all those who lost their jobs and to absorb new workers.

The longest jobs recession in decades coincides, not coincidentally, with the longest stretch of anemic economic performance on record.

U.S. gross domestic profit hasn’t risen 4% or more in any quarter since the first quarter of 2006. That’s by far the longest such stretch on record going back to 1950. The only other sizable sub-par stretch was a three-year span from late 2000 to mid-2003 during the prior recession and sluggish recovery.

I would advise you to go read the rest of that report, as it is quite a depressing read. Ace over at Ace of Spades HQ likes to call it DOOM. I simply look at it as grim reality. This reality was created by the Democrats, who sought to game the system during a time of prosperity. This should be a textbook example of why wealth redistribution simply does not work. Instead, the Democrats will use this as an excuse to try to push their green energy polices and why we all should have healthcare, at the taxpayer’s expense. All the while painting Republicans as racist, money grubbing, thugs who wish to keep the poor, black and disabled down.

Arguing it, in my opinion, is an exercise in futility anymore, because most Republicans are too stupid to know how to make the argument properly. Instead, Republicans come off sound cold, aloof, uncaring, and cold-hearted —- or simply, like Mitt Romney.

This all affects me in many ways. I would get into all of that, but because I do not want to be accused of being a whiner, I will not bother. Therefore, I will simply say this, this all was happening in Michigan, long before it began happening in the entire Country. Thanks to Jennifer Granholm’s inability to govern a state, we suffered long before the rest of the Country did. This is why I like to say, welcome to my world. Because this mess we are in now, has been my world, since about 2000. Admittedly, it got bad around here in about 2003 and after that, it was downhill around here. I have out of work since 2005; and part of that is my fault and part of it is not. My physical health is not in the best of shape either, my back and knees are hosed from years of trying to be superman, when I was working. It all catches up, as I have learned; there is not day that goes by when my back and knees are not in pain. The pain is just a part of life, of getting old, I suppose. I do not have any sort of healthcare insurance, so I live with the pain.

However, I simply refuse to see myself as a charity case. I refuse to take a handout from the Government. Social Security is out for me; hell, I have a friend in Ohio that I have known since childhood — we used to live across the street from one another in Southwest Detroit — and he has a legitimate heart condition and he has a lawyer fighting to get his social security. You want to talk about someone unfairly losing his or her career. My friend Joe, who I have known for an eternity, was a well-paid and very well skilled automotive mechanic. Let me state emphatically that the auto industry is much worse off without his skills. Anyhow, Joe was working in this area not far from where I live, at an automotive dealership. Joe ended up having to move to Ohio to be closer to his family. In the process of moving, he just happened to have a check up and that is when he discovered he had a heart condition. This might help you to understand why it is that I simply do not like dwelling on my own misfortune at all. This is simply because there are those out there, who have it much worse than I do.

The point I am making is this; if my friend Joe is having to lawyer to even get social security disability and he has a legitimate condition, what makes you think I could even remotely get it? I just cannot see myself trotting in and saying, “Hi, I have ADHD and I think I am entitled to social security.” I tried that once, after being pestered by my Mom about it and I tried that and it failed. I will not try that again. I felt like a fool. My point is, I do want to work, doing something that I can do, that will not end up screwing my knees and back up even worse than they already are now.

I have made three major mistakes in my life and I will always regret them. The first was thinking that I could go to Commercial Truck Driving School, on the State of Michigan’s dime no less and then think that I could just waltz into a local driving job. I know now that the commercial vehicle insurance industry just does not allow that to happen. The second mistake was getting a job that was related to the retail industry; retail stores suck and those who work in them are usually complete and useless assholes. Believe me when I tell you this; I know from experience. With the exception of my first job ever, every job I have ever tried work in, which was related to retail was a total disaster. I just do not have the personality for retail sales at all. The main reason for this is that, frankly, people can be just plain nasty. I could tell you horror stories of working in the retail business.

My third mistake was allowing my family to talk me into getting a job where they worked, that was major mistake. I believe the biggest reason I am where I am today is the result that mistake. I love my family, all of them; but I have tried working with them more than once and it was a disaster. Even when my job was not working around them, it ended up with me getting into with them, over something. Lesson learned there, never again.

Therefore, here I sit, writing, hoping that this will all turn around for the Country and me. Something tells me, I am going to be waiting for a very long time.

The real unemployment rate? Try 14.9%

I have one thing to say about all this below; welcome to my world.

1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.

2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.

3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.5%.

4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.9%.

5. Recall that back in 2009, White House economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer used their old-fashioned Keynesian model to predict how the $800 billion stimulus would affect employment. According to their model—as displayed in the above chart, updated—unemployment should be around 6% today.

6. As Ed Carson of Investor’s Business Daily points out, it’s been a whopping 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.

7. And how long might it take to get back to the 4.4% unemployment rate that existed under President George. W. Bush? Well, let’s say the goal was to get back to that rate in 5 years. And let’s assume the LFP rate returns to the CBO trend. According to a jobs calculator created by the Atlanta Fed, the U.S. economy would have to generate about 225,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 60 months to hit that target. But few economist think we’ll see sustained job growth like that, especially since it assumes the economy would avoid recession during that span.

Indeed, JPMorgan just cut its GDP forecast for this quarter to 1.5% from 2.0% and says there is “some downside risk” to its second-quarter forecast of 2.5%.

via The real unemployment rate? It sure isn’t 8.3% « The Enterprise Blog.

What gets me is that I keep getting these people coming here and telling me to get a job. My answer to them: Find me one. Truth is there are not any jobs around here. Especially if you have been out of work for a long while, as I have; so, basically, I am screwed. I will most likely be forced onto the Government dole, because of the Democrats screwing of our system into the ground. I have paid into it; so, I guess I am entitled to it. What sucks is, I really want to work; at least doing some sort of delivery product; at least in a straight truck; but because I have been out of work so long, most employers will not hire someone out as long as I have been.

It does truly suck; but it is my reality of my life. You would think that I would be able to find work for a political publication; but anymore, if you do not have some sort of an inside connection somewhere, you will not be hired. Again, more of that suck business; but it is the reality of life. One can either suck it up or whine about it. I choose not to whine, but rather keep writing. I figure whining about it will not change anything anyhow, so why bother?

Anyhow, that is the facts life. One can either deal with it and move on or complain.