I hate to be the one to say it, but I told you so. I even wrote it early this morning; that Obama’s rhetoric in his speeches does not match realities on the ground and that includes his performance.
Buzzfeed even noticed the lack of mention of the Unemployed:
CHARLOTTE, NC — President Barack Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention Thursday night didn’t include language targeted at the nation’s unemployed.
Despite boilerplate language about the job losses four years ago and his plans to create jobs, Obama did not specifically address the millions of Americans still struggling to find a job or a job that meets their needs.
Obama’s speech also avoided any mention of the unemployment rate, which is still above 8 percent and fell in August because 368,000 Americans left the workforce. Obama was briefed on the August jobs report yesterday afternoon, hours before he took the stage in Charlotte.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the nation created only 96,000 jobs in August, well below what analysts expected, while the previous two months of job gains were also revised downward. On the surface the jobs report is a mixed bag for Obama, but nearly every underlying statistic reveals lingering economic weakness.
“If last night was the party, this morning is the hangover. For every net new job created, nearly four Americans gave up looking for work entirely. This is more of the same for middle-class families, who are suffering through the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression. After 43 straight months of unemployment above 8 percent, it is clear that President Obama just hasn’t lived up to his promises, and his policies haven’t worked. They aren’t better off than they were four years ago. My plan for a stronger middle class will create 12 million new jobs by the end of my first term. America deserves new leadership that will get our economy moving again.”
– Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 96,000 in August, the Labor Department said, versus expectations of 125,000 jobs or more. The manufacturing sector, much touted by the president in his convention speech, lost 15,000 jobs.
– Since the start of the year, job growth has averaged 139,000 per month vs. an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.
– As the chart at the top shows, the unemployment rate remains far above the rate predicted by Team Obama if Congress passed the stimulus. (This is the Romer-Bernstein chart.)
– While the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% from 8.3% in July, it was due to a big drop in the labor force participation rate (the share of Americans with a job or looking for one). If fewer Americans hadn’t given up looking for work, the unemployment rate would have risen.
– Reuters notes that the participation rate is now at its lowest level since September 1981.
– If the labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 11.2%.
– If the participation rate had just stayed the same as last month, the unemployment rate would be 8.4%.
– The Labor Department also said that 41,000 fewer jobs were created in June and July than previously reported. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from 64,000 to 45,000, and the change for July was revised from 163,000 to 141,000.
– The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers who want full-time work, is at 14.7%.
– The employment-population ratio is perhaps the broadest measure of the health of the labor market. It just shows how many Americans — not in the military or in prison — as a share of the population actually have some sort of a job. That number fell last month to 58.3%, just off its Great Recession lows.
– Each month, The Hamilton Project examines the “jobs gap” — the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month. If we added 96,000 jobs every month, we would not close the jobs gap until after 2025, as this chart shows.
– The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in August. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.2 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours.
– The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours.
– In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 1 cent to $23.52. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by just 1.7 percent.
– In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged down by 1 cent to $19.75.
As President Obama likes to say on in his campaign speeches; when his supporters boo Mitt Romney or the Republicans — “Don’t Boo, VOTE!” Well, I think it is quite obvious that it is time for Americans to vote differently. Because it is quite obvious to this writer that President Obama has done nothing to match his flowing rhetoric in his speeches.
We can surmise that Obama’s lackluster performance last night was due in part to an early look at a jobs report that not even his most dogged media shills can spin. Mitt Romney put out a statement that read: “If last night was the party, this morning is the hangover. For every net new job created, nearly four Americans gave up looking for work entirely. This is more of the same for middle class families who are suffering through the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression. After 43 straight months of unemployment above 8%, it is clear that President Obama just hasn’t lived up to his promises and his policies haven’t worked. We aren’t better off than they were four years ago. My plan for a stronger middle class will create 12 million new jobs by the end of my first term. America deserves new leadership that will get our economy moving again.”
The job numbers will likely harden the perception that the president is in over his head. The voters do not see a “recovery.” A call for “more time” is unconvincing if one has the sense neither that four nor 40 years would make a difference under this president.
Romney will continue to hammer away at the president’s failures. But he would be wise to push (as he is doing in 15 new ads in eight states) his own plans for middle-class Americans, and most especially domestic energy development. Voters are certain things are bad; they now need to be reassured Romney will be better. With these jobs numbers the public might well conclude: How could he do any worse?
To this I can only add a very hearty Gentile Protestant Christian —- Amen. 😉 😀
I have to like Chuck Baldwin, he does not mince words:
It has happened again. We go through this every four years, and every four years the vast majority of “conservatives” fall for it. This is such a broken record. What did Forrest Gump say: “Stupid is as stupid does”? And wasn’t it P.T. Barnum who said, “There’s a sucker born every minute”? Well, here we go again.
Neocon RINO George H.W. Bush picks “conservative” Dan Quayle. “Conservative” G.W. Bush picks neocon RINO Dick Cheney. Neocon RINO John McCain picks “conservative” Sarah Palin. Now, neocon RINO Mitt Romney picks “conservative” Paul Ryan. As long as there is one “conservative” on the ticket, mushy-headed “conservatives” across the country will go into a gaga, starry-eyed, hypnotic trance in support of the Republican ticket. I’m convinced that if Lucifer, himself, was the GOP Presidential candidate, he would get the support of the Religious Right and Republican “conservatives” as long as he selected a reputed “conservative” to join his ticket. And, by the way, the notable “conservative” wouldn’t think twice about joining such a ticket, either, I’m convinced.
Let’s just get this on the record: since 1960, there have only been two Presidential nominees (from the two major parties) who were not controlled by the globalist elitists. One was a Democrat, John F. Kennedy; the other was a Republican, Ronald Reagan. Kennedy was shot and killed; Reagan was shot. Every other President, Democrat or Republican, has been totally controlled, which is why none of them have done diddly-squat to make a difference in the direction of the country. On the issues that really matter, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are just more of the same!
He goes on to say that Ron Paul is the only one; and I disagree with that. However, I will say this; he is right about Romney and Ryan. Which is I am voting for:
I hate repeating myself, but for the sake of blogging about something, I am going to have to repeat myself….again. However, for short, it’s just more of this here.
But for those of us, who want a longer version of the story; I give you this:
When you print more money, you devalue currency, and when you devalue currency, the price of everything goes up. This, in turn, causes employers to have to pay for more everything, and this also causes them to look at their bottom line. This is the vicious cycle of inflation. Which is caused by a fiat currency, which is not backed by Gold. I said this on my old blog, a million times back when Obama was being elected and afterwards.
So, here we have the story about August unemployment numbers being bad. Again, as I report this, remember what I said above:
New Gallup unemployment data suggest an increase in the government’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August when it is reported on Friday, Sept. 7. During recent months, Gallup’s measurements have been more optimistic than those of the BLS. Barring a sharp reversal in this relationship, the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate might be expected to stay the same or increase in August.
Gallup’s Daily tracking of the unemployment situation is based on interviews with more than 30,000 adults over the 30 days ending Aug. 15, and shows essentially no change in the unadjusted unemployment rate at 8.3% compared to 8.2% in July. In turn, this suggests that the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate could increase to 8.7% in July from 8.6% in June. The government’s measurement of the unadjusted unemployment rate has been known to differ with Gallup’s findings, but a drop of 0.3% in July is necessary to bring the government’s unadjusted rate down to Gallup levels.
More interestingly, there were no BLS seasonal adjustments in August 2011. If this remains the same in 2012, the Gallup seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August would be 8.3% while that of the BLS would be 8.7%, assuming a similar increase to that shown in the Gallup data. Further, Gallup’s data show the labor force participation rate to be increasing in August. In turn, that could have an additional negative impact on the unemployment rate for August if the government’s data show a similar pattern.
Click to make bigger
Trying to guess the U.S. unemployment rate has been a thankless task in 2012, even using Gallup’s 30,000 interviews as a basis for estimation — even worse than trying to guess the results of the government’s establishment survey. However, like ADP’s (Automatic Data Processing) estimates of the establishment survey results, Gallup’s numbers have been close to the household survey results much of the time.
Regardless, barring heroic adjustments or a sharp change in direction, Gallup data suggest the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for August will increase — possibly substantially — when announced in early September.
So, if you cannot find a job, this is why: Employers are having to look at their bottom lines. They have to take in account for the fact that they have to pay for supplies, taxes, insurance, and equipment; this does not leave much left over for extra employees. This is not rocket science my friends; this is textbook small business administration. It is too bad that progressives, Democrats and the Obama Administration simply do not seem to understand this concept.
I was going to try avoid writing about this, but I am seeing some rather silly stuff being written about this win; So, I thought I would offer my thoughts as a former Democratic Party voter. Update:Greg Sargent over at The Washington Post hits the post a bit, but fails, as most progressives do; to see the full picture.
Putting it plain and simple, The Democrats in Wisconsin picked a fight that they could not win. — They were outspent, out-organized, and out-boxed; the Democrats had zero chance of winning this recall election at all. But yet, they still decided to fight for a recall election. They should have taken their cues from Michigan and left well enough alone. The Democrats in Michigan tried unsuccessfully to get Governor Snyder recalled here twice and both times they failed horribly. This is because residents of Michigan knew that the former Governor of Michigan was a incompetent moron who could not Govern worth a damn and they did not want a Democrat back in office again. Thus, the Democrats wisely dropped the issue and decided to try and win the 2012 election. Wisconsin should have followed their lead, but they did not and decided to try and force their hand and failed.
Walker crushed his Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, in the political money wars. The governor raised $30.5 million while Barrett pulled in $3.9 million—a nearly 8-to-1 advantage in candidate fundraising. Walker banked on in- and out-of-state donors, including heavyweight GOP contributors such as Houston homebuilder Bob Perry and Amway heir Dick Devos. Walker was able to raise so much money because of a quirk in state law that lets candidates potentially facing a recall raise unlimited funds for their defense. (The normal limit for individual donors in $10,000.) Barrett did not get to raise unlimited funds in his recall campaign—which placed him at a great disadvantage.
All that money helped Walker pound Barrett in the ad wars. An analysis by Hotline On Call found that Walker and his GOP allies outspent Barrett and his backers 3-to-1 on TV ad buys in the three months before Tuesday’s recall. The dark-money-peddling Republican Governors Association itself spent $9.4 million to keep Walker in office.
Just as the political money advantage proved crucial to labor’s win last year in repealing Ohio’s anti-union SB 5 law, campaign cash appears to have played a pivotal role in the GOP’s Wisconsin wins .
2) The Candidate
Filing nearly one million signatures to trigger a recall election, Democrats and union leaders and members had their sights trained on the governor. The recall election’s Democratic primary forced them to take their eyes off the prize. A primary fight between Barrett and former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk splintered the labor movement. The major unions endorsed Falk early on, sometimes over the opposition of their own rank-and-file. Several other unions held out until late March, when Barrett entered the race, and then endorsed the mayor. This primary drama knocked the anti-Walker effort off course for weeks, if not a month, in a race where every single day counts. It divided a unified movement into Barrett supporters and Falk supporters.
3) No New Ground
Democrats and labor unions touted their massive get-out-the-vote operation, which was supposed to tip the scales in their favor. Turn-out was way up in the elections, at 2.4 million, but the left failed to win over the types of people who elected Walker in 2010. As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinelnotes, Walker’s Tuesday win is a mirror image of his 2010 victory—just with more voters. He won men and lost women; won independents and lost moderates; and won suburban and rural voters but not urban voters.
More notably, Walker won 38 percent of votes from union households—an increase of 1 percent from 2010. Remember, union members or their spouses didn’t know in 2012 that Walker planned to target them after the election with his anti-union “budget repair” bill curbing collective bargaining rights. Yet 16 months after Walker launched his attack on unions, just as many people in union households voted for him. The unions failed to rally their own ranks.
My thoughts on the Unions — One of the main reasons why the unions failed; not because of a lack of members or money. The unions failed because for the following:
They over played their hand, by storming the capital building and occupying it. This made them look like total buffoons in the eyes of the people, not mention the heavy handed tactics that were on par with communist gulags.
The second reason is a rather simple one; not all union members are on board with the progressive movement, just because someone has a union card, does not necessarily make him a Democrat. Some union members are free thinkers and some of them resent being culled in together with the socialist crowd.
The last reason is this; some union members are just not happy with the Democratic Party and with Obama. I believe Obama fatigue played a big part in the loss in Wisconsin. I believe it will also play out in November as well.
Needless to say, Scott Walker won big and the Unions and Democrats lost big. The results of this will be far-reaching and the Democrats in Wisconsin would be wise to lay low and try to hang on in 2012. But if they do not, they should learn the lessons of the massive over-reach that took place in Wisconsin and with the Democratic Party as a whole. However, knowing Democrats like I do; they will not learn a thing from this.
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February vs. expectations for 206,000, continuing a recent trend of decent hiring activity. The unemployment rate held at 8.3%.
But America remains mired in the longest jobs recession since the Great Depression. It’s been 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. And with nonfarm payrolls still 5.33 million below their old high, the jobs slump will continue for several more years.
The previous jobs recession record — 47 months — came during and after the comparatively mild 2001 recession, which saw unemployment climb to only 6.3%. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.
The labor market won’t truly return to health until some 10 million positions are created to rehire all those who lost their jobs and to absorb new workers.
The longest jobs recession in decades coincides, not coincidentally, with the longest stretch of anemic economic performance on record.
U.S. gross domestic profit hasn’t risen 4% or more in any quarter since the first quarter of 2006. That’s by far the longest such stretch on record going back to 1950. The only other sizable sub-par stretch was a three-year span from late 2000 to mid-2003 during the prior recession and sluggish recovery.
I would advise you to go read the rest of that report, as it is quite a depressing read. Ace over at Ace of Spades HQ likes to call it DOOM. I simply look at it as grim reality. This reality was created by the Democrats, who sought to game the system during a time of prosperity. This should be a textbook example of why wealth redistribution simply does not work. Instead, the Democrats will use this as an excuse to try to push their green energy polices and why we all should have healthcare, at the taxpayer’s expense. All the while painting Republicans as racist, money grubbing, thugs who wish to keep the poor, black and disabled down.
Arguing it, in my opinion, is an exercise in futility anymore, because most Republicans are too stupid to know how to make the argument properly. Instead, Republicans come off sound cold, aloof, uncaring, and cold-hearted —- or simply, like Mitt Romney.
This all affects me in many ways. I would get into all of that, but because I do not want to be accused of being a whiner, I will not bother. Therefore, I will simply say this, this all was happening in Michigan, long before it began happening in the entire Country. Thanks to Jennifer Granholm’s inability to govern a state, we suffered long before the rest of the Country did. This is why I like to say, welcome to my world. Because this mess we are in now, has been my world, since about 2000. Admittedly, it got bad around here in about 2003 and after that, it was downhill around here. I have out of work since 2005; and part of that is my fault and part of it is not. My physical health is not in the best of shape either, my back and knees are hosed from years of trying to be superman, when I was working. It all catches up, as I have learned; there is not day that goes by when my back and knees are not in pain. The pain is just a part of life, of getting old, I suppose. I do not have any sort of healthcare insurance, so I live with the pain.
However, I simply refuse to see myself as a charity case. I refuse to take a handout from the Government. Social Security is out for me; hell, I have a friend in Ohio that I have known since childhood — we used to live across the street from one another in Southwest Detroit — and he has a legitimate heart condition and he has a lawyer fighting to get his social security. You want to talk about someone unfairly losing his or her career. My friend Joe, who I have known for an eternity, was a well-paid and very well skilled automotive mechanic. Let me state emphatically that the auto industry is much worse off without his skills. Anyhow, Joe was working in this area not far from where I live, at an automotive dealership. Joe ended up having to move to Ohio to be closer to his family. In the process of moving, he just happened to have a check up and that is when he discovered he had a heart condition. This might help you to understand why it is that I simply do not like dwelling on my own misfortune at all. This is simply because there are those out there, who have it much worse than I do.
The point I am making is this; if my friend Joe is having to lawyer to even get social security disability and he has a legitimate condition, what makes you think I could even remotely get it? I just cannot see myself trotting in and saying, “Hi, I have ADHD and I think I am entitled to social security.” I tried that once, after being pestered by my Mom about it and I tried that and it failed. I will not try that again. I felt like a fool. My point is, I do want to work, doing something that I can do, that will not end up screwing my knees and back up even worse than they already are now.
I have made three major mistakes in my life and I will always regret them. The first was thinking that I could go to Commercial Truck Driving School, on the State of Michigan’s dime no less and then think that I could just waltz into a local driving job. I know now that the commercial vehicle insurance industry just does not allow that to happen. The second mistake was getting a job that was related to the retail industry; retail stores suck and those who work in them are usually complete and useless assholes. Believe me when I tell you this; I know from experience. With the exception of my first job ever, every job I have ever tried work in, which was related to retail was a total disaster. I just do not have the personality for retail sales at all. The main reason for this is that, frankly, people can be just plain nasty. I could tell you horror stories of working in the retail business.
My third mistake was allowing my family to talk me into getting a job where they worked, that was major mistake. I believe the biggest reason I am where I am today is the result that mistake. I love my family, all of them; but I have tried working with them more than once and it was a disaster. Even when my job was not working around them, it ended up with me getting into with them, over something. Lesson learned there, never again.
Therefore, here I sit, writing, hoping that this will all turn around for the Country and me. Something tells me, I am going to be waiting for a very long time.
I have one thing to say about all this below; welcome to my world.
1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.
2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.
3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.5%.
4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.9%.
5. Recall that back in 2009, White House economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer used their old-fashioned Keynesian model to predict how the $800 billion stimulus would affect employment. According to their model—as displayed in the above chart, updated—unemployment should be around 6% today.
6. As Ed Carson of Investor’s Business Daily points out, it’s been a whopping 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.
7. And how long might it take to get back to the 4.4% unemployment rate that existed under President George. W. Bush? Well, let’s say the goal was to get back to that rate in 5 years. And let’s assume the LFP rate returns to the CBO trend. According to a jobs calculator created by the Atlanta Fed, the U.S. economy would have to generate about 225,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 60 months to hit that target. But few economist think we’ll see sustained job growth like that, especially since it assumes the economy would avoid recession during that span.
Indeed, JPMorgan just cut its GDP forecast for this quarter to 1.5% from 2.0% and says there is “some downside risk” to its second-quarter forecast of 2.5%.
What gets me is that I keep getting these people coming here and telling me to get a job. My answer to them: Find me one. Truth is there are not any jobs around here. Especially if you have been out of work for a long while, as I have; so, basically, I am screwed. I will most likely be forced onto the Government dole, because of the Democrats screwing of our system into the ground. I have paid into it; so, I guess I am entitled to it. What sucks is, I really want to work; at least doing some sort of delivery product; at least in a straight truck; but because I have been out of work so long, most employers will not hire someone out as long as I have been.
It does truly suck; but it is my reality of my life. You would think that I would be able to find work for a political publication; but anymore, if you do not have some sort of an inside connection somewhere, you will not be hired. Again, more of that suck business; but it is the reality of life. One can either suck it up or whine about it. I choose not to whine, but rather keep writing. I figure whining about it will not change anything anyhow, so why bother?
Anyhow, that is the facts life. One can either deal with it and move on or complain.
Normally, I would not care; but this is for someone who believes in the Second Amendment and I believe in that whole “What goes around, comes around” and “Reaping and Sowing” thing. Plus, there’s nothing like good JuJu.. so… Let’s help.
Then, there’s holsters and other things. Folks, currently my holster business is about my only business. If you want a really nice, full-custom holster quick; well, now would be the time to place your order. If I can take orders for about six holsters, I don’t have to go to work in ten days. My brother and I have mused for years of opening a custom shop, specializing in ultra high-end guitar equipment, home audio, and furnishings. Currently, we’ve got a personal project going with an analog 7.1-surround switcher in stainless steel and English Yew. I’d love to make my money building tube amps and the wildest couches and coffee tables that you’ve ever seen. This does not by any means exclude the holster business. There is certainly a place for that in my future.
So, if you have a 6 shooter or something in that department, give this guy a ring dingy and let him make you a holster.
I mean, it’s one thing to be a fat assed unemployed idiot like me, who’s living with his Mommy and Daddy and gets three squares a day and has a roof over his head. But when you are out there in the wild, with no safety net, it is a whole other ballgame. So, get on over there and help this dude out.
Hat Tip and thanks to Say Uncle, who happens to be one the better gun Bloggers out there.
