Heartbreak: New USA Today/Gallup Poll, Obama 53% – McCain 42%

Egad, two days away and this is the best that John McCain can do? Not good, not good at all.

Via USA Today:

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’  current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

This very well could be the writing on the wall for the McCain campaign. What could be causing such a hemorrhage of support for John McCain. Well, besides all the stuff racked up against the Bush Administration, there’s this:

McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.

Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.

In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.

Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.

One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

That may very well be the answer. As I have written on here, many times before, John McCain ran on a faulty narrative. One that assumed that the angry Hillary Clinton voters would just come vote for John McCain. That formula, I am afraid was based upon some very flawed thinking. There was a great deal of cooling off that took place, not to mention there was quite a bit of mending that took place in the Democratic Party, between the factions.

Further more, John McCain thought that Sarah Palin would energize the base towards his campaign, and it did just that, but that’s the only thing it energized, it never did catch on with the rest of America.  I cannot say that it is entirely the fault of John McCain himself, because having a Vice-Presidential pick say silly stuff like, “I can see Russia from my House!” as a qualification for Foreign policy experience, is not a good way to make an impression on the Independent voters.

I will offer the standard caveat, that is that polls are a snapshot in time; one should keep the issues, not the polls in mind when voting.  Vote your principles, Vote your conscience, Vote with your mind, vote with your heart, But above all, Vote.  Lives have been lost, blood has been spilled on many a battlefield; distant and domestic, over the great vast space of that shadowing figure we call time; so that we as American Citizens can exercise that one scared thing that gives we the people; the great citizens of this free and Democratic Republic, that is the opportunity to voice our opinions in what happens in our political system in this great country of ours. That is to cast a private ballot choosing whom; we as free Americans, without fear of oppression, to choose the next person to be the President of the United States of America.

When you’ve lost Zogby, You’ve lost the election.

Sigh…. SighIt only gets worse for McCain.

Zogby, A Republican owned Polling system has grim news for John McCain:

The race for President of the United States continued to tighten, as both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain lost ground in a contest that is now a four–point game, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Obama lost 0.9 points and now stands at 49.0% in the tracking poll, while McCain lost 0.4 points and now stands at 44.7% support in a head–to–head match–up. Another 6.3% said they were undecided, up from 4.9% the day before.

McCain wins 87% of the Republican support, and Obama 84% of the Democratic support, and each candidate wins 11% of the opposing party’s support. Obama continues to lead among independent voters – his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%.

McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin. Among white voters, McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin. Among Hispanics, Obama leads, 66% to 28%, and among African Americans, Obama wins 88% to McCain’s 9%.

The numbers:

Week Four

Three–Day

Tracking Poll

10–27

Obama

49.0%

McCain

44.7%

Others/Not sure

6.3%

Week Three

Three–Day

Tracking Poll

10–26

10–25

10–24

10–23

10–22

Obama

49.9%

49.4%

51.1%

51.3%

52.2%

McCain

45.1%

44.1%

41.6%

41.0%

40.3%

Others/Not sure

4.9%

6.6%

7.3%

7.7%

7.5%

Week Two

Three-Day

Tracking Poll

10–19

10–18

10-17

10-16

10-15

Obama

49.8%

47.8%

48.3%

48.7%

49.0%

McCain

44.4%

45.1%

44.4%

43.7%

43.5%

Others/Not sure

5.8%

7.1%

7.3%

7.6%

7.5%

           

Week One

Three-Day

Tracking Poll

10-12

10-11

10-10

10-9

10-8

Obama

47.9%< /p>

48.9%

47.6%

47.6%

47.8%

McCain

43.6%

42.8%

43.8%

43.4%

44.2%

Others/Not sure

8.5%

8.3%

8.6%

9.0%

8.0%

Wow… just wow…. I mean, who can spin that, McCain says it’s going to be a squeaker? Honestly? Is he reading the same polls as the rest of the world? I mean, Zogby! The Republican Poll company says you’re losing?!?! Unbelievable. Surprise

I do not dare use the word “landslide”. But It’s going to be a bad day on November 4.

 

Polls tighten up

(H/T Rich Lowery)

Seems the Gallup Polls are showing a tighter margin for Obama and McCain.

Quote:

The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup’s traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup’s expanded model.

Graphics:

John McCain said this race will be a "squeaker", as he called it. The problem is that it is not going to be a squeaker in his favor. It’s the economy, the war, and his ties to the Bush Administration that is killing him. Not to mention his picking of a total buffoon for a V.P.

Put quite simply, this is just not the Republicans year when it comes to Presidential Politics. 

Are Polls what they’re cracked up to be?

(H/T AllahPundit @ HotAir)

Via Virginia Virtucon:  (One of his contributors writes)

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.

Yikes! Maybe a bit extreme on the mental image. Sick But it does tell something. Maybe these polls are not as accurate as some might think.

We shall see.

Needless to say, this election is going to be a historic one. Whomever wins this election and becomes our Nation’s next President will have their own work cut out for them. I would not want to be in their shoes at all come 2009.

The Obligatory Obama is ahead in the polls and McCain’s attacks posting.

First off about the Polls. It’s obvious, the economy is literally driving McCain’s campaign into the ditch. The attack ads obviously did not help, but more than anything, it is the economy, the Republican Party is just on the bad side of things. There’s no way around that or no way of spinning it at all. When the economy tanks the American people look to the opposing party to bring change. Which is what happened in 1980 with Reagan and after the stock market crash and subsequent depression in 1929, with FDR. This time the Republican Party is the Political Party that is one on the wrong side of the situation.

While I might not agree with some of Obama’s positions, I think sometimes, that Obama might just bring some jobs back to this area. I know that I could benefit from that. Obviously, Bob Barr is not going to be elected, even I understand that. While I am not going to come out as a flag waving Obama-bot. I will be the first to concede that change is needed in America and at the moment, Obama represents that. I don’t think the change will come at the speed that many are believing, but it will come, sooner or later.

As for the McCain attack ads and how it is affecting him in the polls; the issue is not what the ads said, it was how they were framed and presented to the American people. The entire problem was that John McCain was saying “Bill Ayers, Bill Ayers, Bill Ayers” and Black America and some the more uneducated on the far right, that believe everything that crosses their mailbox were hearing “He’s a black terrorist! He’s a black terrorist! He’s a black terrorist!” Needless to say this has not helped John McCain’s campaign at all. Not only that, but the picking of Sarah Palin was, as far as this writer is concerned, a tragic mistake. I say this because what McCain was trying to do, was appeal to his base. The problem is, you cannot win an election by appealing just to your base. But rather appealing to the Independent Voters or what are called “The swing voters.” They decide the election in the end, not the base of either party.

Obama on the other hand has appealed to Democrats and Independents as well, and also Conservatives as well; Chris Buckley is a prime example. I mean, Chris Buckley?!?! The son of the infamous staunch Conservative icon, William F. Buckley? Obviously, something is wrong with McCain’s campaign for Buckley to give McCain the cold shoulder. John McCain’s own brother blasted McCain’s campaign for not handling him properly.

Obama on the other hand has handled a very steady campaign, at times, in this writers opinion, playing certain “Cards” to their advantage, as they did with Hillary; much to the same effect as McCain’s campaign. This is just called good politics and good campaigning, and most shockingly it has worked.

So, the bottom line is this; John McCain while he might be great person of courage and valor, his campaign has been the Republican equivalent of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. To beat someone like Obama, you must be good, damned good, and sorry to say, but McCain just is not that; Good.

New Poll point out racism within Democrat ranks.

Seems there’s still Racism in the Democratic Party. (what? you’re surprised? whatever for?) Does anyone remember this here? (It’s a speech given by a Democrat.)

Some are not so sure and blame the AP.

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Post McCain/Plain Speech poll bounce, But what’s it’s term?

Short Term or Long Term? that, my friends, is the question of the hour.

According to the latest Gallop poll, John McCain is taken a nice 5 point lead, above the 2% margin of error, over Barack Obama.

Quote:

John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

These results are based on Sept. 5-7 interviewing, and are the first in which all interviews were conducted following the completion of the GOP convention. Immediately prior to the convention’s Sept. 1 start, Aug. 29-31 interviewing showed McCain with 43% support among registered voters, compared with 49% today. Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.

That is slightly better than Barack Obama’s four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points.

Here are the charts:

080908DailyUpdateGraph1_n4b7v2

080908DailyUpdateGraph3_j6n8b4

This really nothing new because there’s been a bounce like this since 1964:

080909DailyUpdateGraph2_j8b6v3

Like I wrote yesterday. the big question is, will this bounce on McCain’s part be short term or long term? I’m sure that John McCain and the Republican Party is betting the farm that the bounce will remain and John McCain will simply glide into the White House. However, this is not 1980 and John McCain is not Ronald Reagan, neither is Sarah Palin, I mean, she’s a good speaker, and kinda cute, for an older Woman, but she’s no Reagan. Plus, the country is in a much different shape; politically and financially, plus, I think it is just a different world, we have two wars, that America wants to just see ended, preferably with good results.

Which leads me to my next point. I simply do not understand why Adam McKay had this Nuclear melt down on The Huffington Post. I mean, let’s not discount the Democratic Party or Barack Obama until the damn polls close on Novemeber 4, 2008, please. We’re very early in this race.

The best advice or comment that I can give, is watch the polls for the next few weeks, is about all I can truly say here. The long term polls will tell the story. I think that if Obama wants to regain his lead, he has to drive the point home the point that the Republican Party IS the Party of George W. Bush. They will have remind Americans of the nonsense of the Bush Administration, on FISA, on the Attorney General scandal, Valerie Plume gate, and on and on…. They need to remind America about John McCain’s ties to lobbyists, even possibly infer that he slept with one, They also need to remind and tell America how Sarah Palin lied about the Jet, her flip-flop on the bridge to nowhere and so on. That is what will win this.

So, the bottom line is:

This is a very early poll and there’s many more to come, before November 4, 2008.

Others: Hot Air, JammieWearingFool, Ace of Spades HQ, and more via Memeorandum

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McCain enjoys a post convention poll bounce

John McCain coming out of the Republican Convention has enjoyed a bounce in the polls, of about 3%, above the 3% margin of error.

Gallop Poll reports the following:

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow’s report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party’s presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

The Charts:

080907DailyUpdateGraph1_s4m7a9

080907DailyUpdateGraph2_n3d9b1

I guess that I am in agreement with AllahPundit on this one. I don’t expect this really to be a long lasting bounce. What I predict will happen is, that the poll will either return to it’s previous state, or will turn in favor of McCain in a bigger percentage for the short term and will even back out, as we get closer to the election. With the news of the failing banking institutions, I believe Obama is going to have something to really nail McCain on, by blaming Bush for the housing crisis, which caused the run on the Banks, he will be able to push that message home to the people. He will do that by telling people, that McCain is basically Bush and Co. 2.0.

There is one cold hard fact that McCain cannot escape, that that is the quote, “A nation of whiners”. Which was given Phil Gramm, who is/was John McCain’s economic adviser. Who was also responsible for the deregulation of the housing loan industry. John McCain cannot escape that fact, at all, and it will come back to haunt him here, as we come closer and closer to election day. Especially seeing that McCain is very heartily trying to paint himself as somewhat of a maverick. McCain supposedly has broken ties with Phil Gramm, however, he has been spotting with McCain since then.

The bottom line here is, that more data is needed, to assess the actual bounce, if any at all.

Others Blogging: Don Surber, Blue Crab Boulevard, Scared Monkeys, Hot Air, FiveThirtyEight.com, Founding Bloggers, MyDD, Ace of Spades HQ, Fox News, The Strata-Sphere, Wizbang, The Moderate Voice, Donklephant, PSoTD, Stop The ACLU, Truthdig,The Volokh Conspiracy

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Bob Barr, The Right Choice for America…..

Bob Barr For President 2008

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